By Nick Giancola – Syracuse University ’21
Abstract
The game of basketball is always evolving on every level that it is played. Through the last few decades, particularly in the last 10 years, the game has been using the three-pointer at an increased rate. This could be due to a variety of factors whether it be efficiency, influence of star players such as Stephen Curry, or player development. The point of my research will be to spot how changes made to the three-point line affected the game as a whole. These changes include the initiation of the three-point line, moving it further back, or moving it in closer.
Introduction
There have been several adjustments made to the game of basketball on every level of play in its history. I will study the effect of moving the three-point line on how the game is played and how it has changed since the line’s initiation in 1980. I will see exactly just how much it was affected by running a regressions. I will create a dashboard showing how the rule changes effected both the NBA and NCAA D-1 leagues and see if the rule changes had a different effect on college players versus pro players.
I expect to see an increase in field goals attempted and points per game with the initiation of the three-point line in the early 1980s. As the line has been lengthened in college, I would expect to see a slower pace as offenses might take more time to find the best shot with more spacing. Administrators on the college and professional levels that look to make alterations to the basketball court would be able to use my research to have a better idea of how their changes will affect the game as a whole. NBA executives could use my research to observe how college players have adapted to farther three-point lines historically; also, they can use the results from the altered NBA three-point line in the mid 1990s to see if the scoring slump was remedied at all from the shortened line and how they can use that data to make changes going forward.
I think my research is relevant because NBA teams are using analytics now more than ever and this could possibly provide insight on how the game might change in the future if they were to move the line out again or even add a four-point line.
Methods
I obtained my data for the NBA and NCAA from Basketball Reference. I obtained league data by season for the NBA from 1980-1981 season until the 2020-2021 season. The variables for the NBA are: FGM, FGA, 3PM, 3PA, FTM, FTA, ORB, DRB, TRB, AST, STL, BLK, TOV, PF, PTS, FG%, 3P%, FT%, Pace, eFG%, TOV%, ORB%, FT/FGA, and ORtg. I also obtained league data by season for NCAA basketball from the 1992-1993 season to the 2019-2020 season. The variables for this dataset were: FGM, FGA, FG%, 3PM, 3PA, FTM, FTA, FT%, TRB, AST, STL, BLK, TOV, PF, and PTS. I also obtained data on players I selected from different eras in the NBA and NCAA that were high volume three-point shooters. The NBA players I selected were Detlef Schrempf, Steve Kerr, James Harden, and Stephen Curry. The variables in this dataset were: FGM, FGA, FG%, 3PM, 3PA, 3P%, 2PM, 2PA, 2P%, eFG%, FT, FTA, FT%, ORB, DRB, TRB, AST, STL, BLK, TOV, PF, and PTS. The college basketball players I selected were Darrin Fitzgerald, Stephen Curry, Fletcher Magee, and Markus Howard. Below are a few figures including two models with each league and also visualizations showing the differences in each league.
Results
The first visualization shows a constant increase in three-pointers taken in both leagues but particularly the NBA in the last 10 seasons. There was a brief peak in the mid 1990s when the NBA tried moving the three-point line in closer to increase scoring. You can see in the points chart that points actually decreased during this brief time. You can also see a slight dip in the college three-pointers attempted in 2008 when the NCAA increased the length of the three-point line.
The second figure shows the difference in three-pointers attempted by selected elite three-point shooters in both the NCAA and NBA in the different eras of the three-point line. I chose to visualize this to see the drastic growth in three-point shooting by select players and to show how players are specializing more in three-point shooting.
The NBA model shows significant values at FG, FTA, TRB, PTS, eFG%, ORtg, and Pace. The NCAA model shows significant values at FG, FTA, TRB, and PTS. The models and visuals point to the fact that the use of the three-pointer is causing an increase in points and rebounds for both leagues. It also increase Pace and Offensive Rating in the NBA showing that teams are using it more efficiently.
Conclusions
After running several models and generating visualizations, I found that the three-pointer has been used more and more since it was initialized. In the NBA, there was a brief peak in the 1990s where the league decided to address a decrease in scoring with a three-point line moved closer in. The NCAA saw gradual increase in the use of the three-pointer with a slight decrease in the 2008 season when the line was increased.
There has been a drastic change in the NBA in volume shooters in the 2010s compared to the 1990s. James Harden and Stephen Curry are attempting record highs in three-pointers with almost four times as many attempts as Detlef Schrempf and Steve Kerr. In the NCAA, I found that Darrin Fitzgerald actually had the most attempts from three in his one season in college with a three-point line. The rest of the attempts between high volume NCAA players are relatively the same.
References
- Cobb David. “College Basketball’s New 3-Point Line: Five Ways Moving the Distance Further out Has Impacted the Game.” CBSSports.com, 7 Feb. 2020, www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketballs-new-3-point-line-five-ways-moving-the-distance-further-out-has-impacted-the-game/.
- Doucette, Fox. “Did the Three-Pointer Really ‘Kill Basketball’?” Pace and Space, 10 Dec. 2018, paceandspacehoops.com/did-the-three-pointer-really-kill-basketball/.
- Feng, Dr. Ed. THE POWER RANK, thepowerrank.com/2020/07/28/predictability-vs-skill-in-sports-analytics-3-point-shooting/.
- Goldsberry, Kirk. “How Mapping Shots In The NBA Changed It Forever.” FiveThirtyEight, FiveThirtyEight, 2 May 2019, fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-mapping-shots-in-the-nba-changed-it-forever/.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Dr. Rodney Paul for his guidance in helping me with this research. I also want to thank Falk College and Syracuse University for equipping me with the tools to complete this research and for giving me the opportunity to complete and share my research. Finally, I would like to thank my family and friends for all of their support throughout my academic journey. I would not be where I am today without having them with me every step of the way.